Hmm. Putin didn’t have the power – the gonads! to stop Prigozhin’s march to Moscow outright. Instead, it seems Putin ran and hid, likely in a command aircraft, to Valdai, a lovely town on a lovely lake about 240 miles from Moscow. Some of Putin’s “government” army refused to bomb or attack Prigozhin. And various “Free Russia” organizations stood with Prigozhin, including Alexi Navalny, whom Putin tried to poison and is keeping in prison for life for standing against Putin.
This is what czars, oligarchs, and other slimy “dictator leaders” do. They lock the people up that they are afraid of – no trials, no proof.
This newly opened void allowed Lukashenko to cut a deal with Prigozhin; Lukashenko got to take the credit, not Putin. The results: No outright civil war in Russia (yet) and no Russian blood shed by other Russians, but Putin is weaker. Prigozhin is free to build his power, which will likely include some power deals with Lukashenko and numerous others. Meanwhile, Putin will probably fire a few generals, punish some military individuals, and make things more difficult for rank-and-file Russian citizens.
So what do they think? The Citizens? The “voters?” The populace?
Russia has never had a true democracy since the Czar. The Russian Empire was an absolute monarchy, meaning that the power of the Tsar was unlimited. The Tsar could make laws, appoint officials, and even declare war. There was no parliament or other elected body that could check the power of the Tsar.
Russia tried a few times – Communists, the Berlin Wall’s fall, no checks and balances, state-controlled media, and no freedom of speech. All failed. Essentially, everyday Russians have never experienced democracy, do not understand it, and, most important, Russians have learned over centuries to keep their mouths shut, go along/get along, don’t make waves.
The Big Question: What will Putin try to do next?
With zero provocation but plenty of lies, Putin’s attack on Ukraine was supposed to save Ukrainians from its Nazi government, except Ukraine did not have a Nazi government. Putin’s war was also supposed to be a quick swoop to victory. That didn’t happen either, so presently, Putin’s choices are pretty puny:
- War without Wagner. Prigozhin’s private military – the Wagner forces, is the one part of Putin’s war with a few victories. In general, once an army loses confidence in its leader, there goes its will to win.
- How much trouble is Putin in? 14 Russian experts weighed in with Politico. My favorite answers are, “Putin overestimated his ability to control the monster he had created;” and “Putin is capable of de-escalation.” Read all 14 answers here: Politico.
But Putin may not have choices.
Lukashenko got credit for Prigozhin halting his forces, and Prigozhin is free, as are his troops. Will the Wagner forces follow Prigozhin to Belarus? Just how much weakened is Putin? When dictators’ lives end, the reasons boil down to two – a dictator dies of natural causes, or the dictator is assassinated.
- Wagner Rebellion. The Hill quoted Prigozhin: “We started our march because of injustice. We did not have the goal of overthrowing the existing regime illegally.“
“Prigozhin, whose mercenary fighters captured a southern Russian city and military base Saturday before halting an advance just more than 100 miles from Moscow, said his “march of justice” was in response to corruption and bureaucracy. He said Russian citizens met him and his fighters with Russian flags and emblems of the Wagner Group.”
The U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said the rebellion shows “proof of cracks in the Russian facade.”
In a Twitter post, Ukraine’s President Zelensky declared, “Russia’s weakness is obvious. Everyone who chooses the path of evil destroys himself.”
Read more with Nick Robertson reporting for The Hill: Zelensky: ‘Russia’s weakness is obvious’ amid Wagner rebellion.