“Among the plethora of challenges Joe Biden faces in his battle for re-election is one that presents a chronic tribulation for Democratic incumbents, especially those in the House of Representatives: the “Implementation Gap” between the enactment of legislation providing massive assistance and when most Americans actually feel the benefits.
“A new report from Politico documents that only a fraction of the $1.6 trillion in domestic spending during Biden’s first two years in the White House has actually been allocated. Four key laws — The American Rescue Plan, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, the CHIPS law to promote domestic technological investment, and the massive Inflation Reduction Act — were all hailed for their ability to restart the ailing post-pandemic economy and create millions of new jobs.
“The economy has achieved an impressive rebound from the weakened state Biden inherited in 2021, significantly outperforming other Western nations. But just 17 percent of the $1.1 trillion intended for climate, energy, and infrastructure has been allocated thus far. As a result, very little jobs impact is likely to be felt by Election Day, and voters have little reason to feel grateful to those who worked to pass these recovery measures.
“The sluggish spend-out rates are reminiscent of the scenario facing House Democrats in 2010 when Democrats passed a sweeping stimulus law as well as the landmark Affordable Care Act. President Obama and congressional leaders predicted millions of “shovel-ready jobs” and improved access to health care for tens of millions of Americans.
“But the administration did a miserable job communicating the achievements to a recession-weary electorate. After a disappointing messaging campaign on the stimulus, House leaders implored Obama not to drop the ball again on selling the health reform law, only to be deeply dismayed yet again. The problem wasn’t just the messaging strategy but rather the inevitable gearing up needed to develop the programs, find eligible projects, review applications, design websites, and the like – all requiring months of planning before the money could be spent and the benefits of the laws realized. In the case of the stimulus, the Democrats’ dilemma wasn’t helped by the realization that many of the “shovel-ready” infrastructure jobs were some distance from being ready. And major portions of the ACA weren’t scheduled to go into effect for three years after enactment.
As a result, Democrats in 2010 and 2022 faced a dilemma: On the one hand, messaging consultants urged them to emphasize their commitment to rejuvenating the economy. “If you’re not talking jobs,” one consultant advised, “you’re losing.” But at the same time, consultants warned against claiming too much credit for a recovery millions of Americans had yet to experience.
“It isn’t enough to give our positive message,” Speaker Nancy Pelosi told her colleagues at a closed-door strategy session before the 2010 election. “We can’t claim success. People would think we were nuts” because the economic pain persisted. That November, Democrats lost 63 House seats and the majority because of this messaging conundrum; twelve years later, the party again lost the majority despite having passed a panoply of recovery measures that had not yet produced discernible benefits to voters.
“The challenge is especially acute for House members because their two-year election cycle means they face anxious voters long before the benefits of the legislation they passed are manifest to the American people. This “Implementation Gap” is especially problematical for Democrats who relish creating sweeping and complex policies that raise immediate expectations of relief but invariably take time to put into place; by contrast, Republicans focus mostly on tax cuts that are quickly implemented and which voters, therefore, feel tangibly in the wallets by the time of the off-year election.
“Maddeningly, much of the largesse included in the Democratic legislative cornucopia of 2021-2022 still remains unspent at this late date. Yet even when improvement projects are underway, the Biden Administration fails to take credit. Just outside Hampton, Connecticut, a large green sign informs motorists that the state and federal Transportation Departments are responsible for improving Utley Road under the aegis of the “bipartisan infrastructure law.” That politically anonymous notification is reminiscent of President Obama’s refusal to send a letter to recipients taking credit for a Democratic tax cut in 2009. (By contrast, President Trump had no hesitation about putting his superfluous autograph on the checks sent to taxpayers for the 2017 tax cut.)
“The situation is by no means hopeless for Biden and Democrats this fall. Obama won re-election in 2012 while the ACA remained largely unimplemented and billions of stimulus money remained unallocated. But the challenge to Democrats is to plug that Implementation Gap as fast as possible: get the appropriated funds out to millions of Americans and their communities so the benefits of having Democrats in charge is more than a promise largely left unfulfilled by Election Day.”
“And don’t be so hesitant to let voters know whom to thank.”
Author John Lawrence serves as Visiting Professor, University of California Washington Center”